【翻译】从数据上浅析曼联本赛季的进球荒

【本文翻译自英国足球分析者Adrian Clarke的一篇解析曼联本赛季进球荒的文章】

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【聊聊曼联的战术】

一.球队整体数据分析

It has been a struggle for Man Utd inside the final third all season, having failed to score in 10 of their 27 league matches.

Their total of 33 goals scored ranks 15th overall and, averaging just 1.22 goals per match, they find themselves in the bottom half of the Premier League table in 14th place.

赛季开始以来，曼联始终难以取得进球，他们在已经进行的27场联赛中有10场未能取得进球。他们的总进球数仅为 33 个，排名联赛第 15 位，而平均每场比赛只有 1.22 个进球，这个数据排在英超的第14位。

【缺乏威胁传中导致的头球稀疏】

If you do not put enough quality balls into the penalty area, it will always be difficult to create opportunities – and that has certainly been the case in 2024/25.

A total of 36 top-flight players have produced 10 or more accurate open-play crosses this season, but none of them are Man Utd players.

如果不能将足够多的高质量球传入禁区，就很难创造机会，曼联在本赛季的情况就是如此。

本赛季，共有 36 名英超球员完成了 10 次或 10 次以上的运动战威胁传中，但其中居然没有曼联球员。

Marcus Rashford does make that list on 10, including two with loan club Aston Villa, but his eight for the Red Devils is their joint-high for the season alongside Bruno Fernandes.

Moving forwards, Amorim will expect more from the likes of Diogo Dalot (six), Noussair Mazraoui (four) and Alejandro Garnacho (three) in the wide areas.

排在这份榜单上的马库斯-拉什福德完成了10次，但其中的两次是在租借的阿斯顿维拉完成的，他在红魔的 8 次威胁传中与布鲁诺并列，为队内首位。而在前锋线上，阿莫林希望达洛特，马兹拉维与加纳乔等人能在大禁区内发挥更大作用。

Part of the problem also lies in a lack of targets inside the penalty area, with forwards Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee having a combined total of less than 100 touches inside the opposition box this season.

Only four sides have produced fewer successful crosses in open play, so it is no surprise that attempts on goal from headers are few and far between.

这样的问题也同样归结于禁区头球点的匮乏，本赛季，曼联的俩名中锋，霍伊伦与齐尔克泽在对方禁区内的触球次数加起来还不到 100 次。

只有四支球队在运动战中的成功传中次数比曼联少，因此红魔头球攻门次数少也就不足为奇了。

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（曼联堪称可怜的传中/头球数据）

Amorim has openly admitted his side are not creating anywhere near enough chances, and the raw numbers back this up.

Fernandes has laid on 12 "big chances" but, aside from him, only the injured Amad (five) and Kobbie Mainoo, Rashford and Joshua Zirkzee (all four) have managed to create more than three all season.

阿莫林公开承认，他的球队创造的机会远远不够，最原始数据也证明了这一点。费尔南德斯创造了 12 次 "绝佳机会"，但除了他之外，整个赛季只有受伤的阿马德（5 次）、科比梅努，拉什福德和齐尔克泽（均为 4 次）创造了 3 次以上的机会。

The attacking data below indicates that 14th place is not an unfair position for Man Utd to be in, as we stand.

Only three teams have scored fewer goals in open play and their shot-conversion rate of 9.3 per cent is ranked 17th in the division.

由此可见曼联目前排名第 14 位并不是一个不公平的排名。只有三支球队在运动战中的进球数更少，红魔的射门转化率仅为 9.3%，在联赛中排名第 17 位。

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（曼联在各项进攻数据中的无力）

【球员个人层面的不足】

二.霍伊伦的困境

Hojlund has now gone 18 matches without a goal in all competitions; the striker has not scored in the Premier League since 7 December, when United lost 3-2 at home to Nottingham Forest.

Amorim defended Hojlund this week, saying the quality of his team’s overall play was "not helping" his centre-forward, and that is true.

霍伊伦已经在各项赛事中连续 18 场比赛没有进球了；自 12月7日曼联主场2:3负于诺丁汉森林的比赛以来，这名前锋还没有在英超联赛中取得过进球。

但在本周，阿莫林为霍伊伦进行了辩护，他称球队的整体表现 "对 "他的中锋 "没有帮助"，事实的确如此。

Statistically, in spite of his goalscoring woes, Hojlund’s 12.5 per cent chance-conversion rate is actually the joint-best of all the Man Utd players who are available this Sunday. He shares the rank with Zirkzee and two defenders, Harry Maguire and Matthijs de Ligt.

Hojlund works hard too. Of the strikers who have featured for at least 500 minutes, his 36.8 off-the-ball runs per 90 is the second-best average. Yet inside the box he is having only 2.95 touches and 0.87 shots per match, which is clearly a concern.

（笑点解析）据统计，尽管霍伊伦德进球困难，但他12.5%的机会转化率在本周日出场的所有曼联球员中是并列最高的。 他与齐克克泽，马奎尔，德利赫特并列第一。

尽管霍伊伦德也很努力。 在至少出场 500 分钟的前锋中，他每 90 分钟 36.8 次的无球跑动次数排名第二，但在禁区内，他每场比赛只有 2.95 次触球和 0.87 次射门，这显然令人担忧。

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（如图所示，霍伊伦德在禁区中央获得的机会非常少）

三.曼联进攻体系对布鲁诺的依赖

So much of what his team produce creatively comes through the captain Fernandes, who has carved out 20 more chances than anyone else in the squad (59). In open play, his 38 key passes are also well ahead of Amad (29) and Garnacho (20), who are ranked second and third.

When you analyse the passes or crosses which have been played into this domain (penalty-area entries) in open play, it is Fernandes who dominates.

队长B费一个人创造的机会比队内其他人（59 次）多出 20 次。在公开比赛中，他的 38 次关键传球也遥遥领先于排名第二和第三的阿马德（29 次）和加纳乔（20 次）。

在分析运动战中传入禁区的传球或横传时，费尔南德斯占据了主导地位。

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（B费之于曼联进攻体系的重要性）

四.阿莫里姆面临的问题是什么？

Amorim will stick with his favoured 3-4-2-1 system, but can he adjust his personnel in a bid to increase Man Utd's goal threat? Since the turn of the year in Premier League action, his starting XI has always contained at least six defensive players and a goalkeeper.

On four occasions he has adopted an 8-3 split, using just a trio of natural attackers. In the other four matches, Amorim has picked a quartet of them in a 7-4 split.

自降临老特拉福德以来，阿莫林始终坚持他最喜欢的 3-4-2-1 阵型，但他能否调整人员以增加曼联的进球威胁？自今年的英超联赛以来，他的首发阵容总是包含至少六名防守球员和一名门将。

有四场比赛，他采用了8:3的比例，使用了八名防守型球员，只派上了三名正统的攻击手。 而在另外四场比赛中，阿莫林则以 7:4的比例排出了一套进攻体系。

When this happens, he either plays Fernandes in central midfield or deploys Amad as a wing-back to get an extra offensive player onto the pitch.

The balance feels too defensive, because even when Fernandes plays as an orthodox central midfielder, he will often sit deep.

This touch map from the 3-2 win over Ipswich Town (attacking from left to right) shows the captain's positioning until he was pushed into a No 10 role in the 67th minute.

在这种情况下，他要么让费尔南德斯踢中场，要么让阿马德踢边后卫，从而增加一名进攻球员。但这种平衡让人感觉过于保守，因为即使费尔南德斯担任正统的中场核心，他也会经常坐得很靠后。

在3:2战胜伊普斯维奇城的比赛中，费尔南德斯的位置图（从左到右进攻）显示了他在第 67 分钟被推上 10 号位之前的位置。

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Barely moving into the final third, Fernandes’ caution was a surprise to see at home against an opponent inside the relegation zone.

在主场对阵降级区内的对手时，布鲁诺几乎没有进入最后三区，他的谨慎令人吃惊。

Amorim is caught in a catch-22 situation because if his side are not scoring prolifically, he cannot afford to take bold risks with his tactical approach that leaves gaps at the back. Yet the data tells us they are only offering a level of threat you associate with a bottom-half side.

目前的阿莫林陷入了一个进退两难的境地，因为如果他的球队进球不多，他就不能大胆地冒险采用战术，从而导致后防空虚。然而数据却告诉我们，他们的威胁程度只能与下半区球队相提并论。

More attack-minded wing-backs will help, but this will not be a quick fix for Amorim, who may need a lot of attacking reinforcements this summer.

In the meantime, based on what we have seen until now, it will not be easy to get the wins required to take Man Utd back into the top half.

即使拥有更多具有进攻意识的边后卫会有所帮助，但这对阿莫林来说也并不是可以一蹴而就的事，他可能需要在今年夏天进行大量的补强。同时，从目前的情况来看，曼联要想重新回到上半区并不容易。

For that to happen, Amorim must find a way for his side to score more goals in the final three months of the season.

阿莫林必须想方设法让球队在本赛季的最后三个月中取得更多进球。

曼联也将在周一的凌晨主场对战阿森纳，祝他们好运。

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